A. 急急急!美国国债和财政部发行的债券利率是美国政府自己定的还是受市场自动调节的
在国际的投资市场中,美债的发行受到许多投资者的欢迎,那么美债是什么,美债的发行利率怎么确定?美债也就是美国国债,是指美国财政部代表联邦政府发行的国家债券。根据发行方式的不同,美国国债可分为三种类型:凭证式国债、实物凭证式国债(又称无记名国债或国债)和记账式国债。
根据美国国债偿还期的不同,美国国债大致可以分为三类:短期国库券、中期国库券和长期国库债券。除了本地投资者,美国国债还面向着世界各国发行。发行量前几年的平均国债为五六千亿美元。
公众和政府持有美国国债
1、公众(包括外国投资者)持有的债券
2、可出售债券
3、不可出售的债券
4、美国政府账户中持有的债券
外国持有
大约25%的美国国债由外国政府持有,几乎是1988年的两倍(13%)。根据美国财政部在2006年底的统计,44%的“公众持有”国债由外国投资者持有,其中66%来自其他国家的银行中部,特别是日本的银行和中国的银行。
外国持有的美国国债的40%来自日本和中国,日本是美国国债的最大持有者。
美债是什么.
了解美债是什么之后,那么美债的发行利率怎么确定?
发行国债的利率受到当时国家通货膨胀程度和政府对未来预期的影响。美联储购买国债相当于向市场释放资金。市场上有更多的资金,获得的成本降低,市场利率自然降低,银行的利率也会降低。一般来说,国债利率是固定的,不会发生变化,但国债价格会发生变化,这将导致国债收益的变化。
黄金是一种货币,尽管持有者不能获得利息;国债是纸或数字,发行者将支付所谓的“国债收益”来安抚持有者的焦虑。国债总收入占总投资的比例是每年“国债收益率". 美国十年国债,收益率,已经降了几十年。
美国国债通过定期拍卖发行。三个月和六个月的国库券在每周一拍卖,一年期国库券在每月的第三周拍卖,国库券在周四交付;第二年,将在1月、2月、4月、5月、8月、10月和11月进行拍卖。财政部将在本月中旬宣布拍卖金额,一周后定价,并在本月底左右交付;拍卖在每季度的第二个月(二月、五月、八月和十月)进行,为期五年和十年;三十年来每年二月和八月拍卖一次。五年期、十年期和三十年期国债通常由财政部在本月初拍卖,一周后定价,并在本月中旬的15日交割。
上述内容是关于美债是什么以及美债的发行利率相关内容,在投资市场中,美债的发行和持有都是比较受欢迎的种类。
B. 邓博弘的邓博弘观点
《北大商业评论》/ 201201 ,邓博弘第一次就自己对产业的看法进行了系统的公开演讲,以创意产业民营企业经营者的实践经验,首次抛出了中国文化创意产业发展的工业艺术化和艺术工业化的阶段性发展理论;就中国文化创意产业大环境现状对文化产业的本质属性进行了客观归纳。
文化产品首先第一属性是商品;第二属性是工具;第三属性是具有艺术性,这也是它与其他工业产品的最重要区别。
PekingUniversityBusiness Review / January, 2012
Deng Bohong made a systematic public speaking about his views on the instry for the first time, and brought forward stage development theory about instrial artistry and art instrialization in terms of Chinese cultural creative instry development, as well as gave an object summary about the essential nature of Chinese cultural creative instry.
The first attribute of cultural procts is being commodity, and the second attribute is being tool, while the third attribute is being art, which is the most important difference when compared with other instrial procts.
《新经济导刊》/ 201206 ,邓博弘与陈少峰(北大文化产业研究院副院长)、贾伟(洛可可设计集团创始人)等人就“文化创意辩证法”的主题,从解析中国文化创意产业的“热与冷”、“小与大”、“善与恶”、“表与本”展开了一场探讨博论。在这次研讨中,邓博弘更进一步深入的表达了对行业的解读。
New Economy Weekly June, 2012
Deng Bohong talked with Chen Shaofeng( associate director of Peking University Cultural Instry Institute) and Jia Wei(founder of Rococo Design Group) about the theme of “cultural creativity dialectic”, and had a discussion in terms of the “Hot and Cold”, “Little and Huge”, “Good and Evil”, “Superficial and Essential” things of Chinese cultural creative instry. In the seminar, Deng Bohong made a profound interpretation about the instry.
--- “热与冷”。市场经济离不开法治社会和民主政治,解决社会环境的问题,是所有行业包括文化创意产业的发展之道。如果都以GDP为主导,以功利和短期效益为主导,以表象为主导,许多推动文化创意产业发展的方法并不成立。国家的政策导向不能头痛医头,脚痛医脚,直接拨钱、批地和建产业园,而应该通过政策法律去树立正确的价值观,形成良好的产业环境和发展机制。
Hot and Cold: Social market economy can not work without the rule of law and democracy, and to solve social environment problems is the development way for all instries including cultural creative instry. If GDP, utilitarian and short-term benefits or superficial phenomenon dominate everything, various ways to promote the development of cultural creative instry would get nowhere. As for the national policy, just specific and limited measures such as dial fund directly or grant land to build instrial park can just have little effects, thus the most important thing is to establish correct values and form good instrial environment and development mechanism through policies and regulations.
--- “小与大”。毫无疑问,文化创意产业是典型的新经济,没有仓储、运输,几乎没有原材料,但文化创意产品的溢价空间却很大。巴尔扎克的手稿价值不可估量,可他使用的纸张和墨水才花了多少钱?
文化创意产业不是靠产量和成本取胜的。2009年,全国电影人在欢呼,中国整个电影票房突破了百亿元,同年美国有一部电影叫《阿凡达》,全球票房27亿美元。这是多大的差距啊!还有更多的例子,10万个普通玻璃杯也抵不上一件汝窑的青花瓷;内容差的书再多也无济于事,一本好书经久不衰,好比四大名著。
Little and Big: Undoubtedly, cultural creative instry belongs to typical new economy, with no warehousing, transportation, and almost no raw materials, but the cultural creativity procts have great premium space. Balzac manuscripts are invaluable now, but how much the paper and ink he used cost?
Cultural creative instry does not depend on output or cost. In 2009, all film makers inChinacheering since the total value of Chinese film box exceeded 10 billion Yuan, and American movie Avatar made a global box office record of $ 2.7 billion at the same year. How much the gap is! There are many more examples like 100,000 ordinary glasses are not worth blue-and-white porcelain from Ru Yao.
--- “善与恶”。我近乎矫情地对专业的坚持,无形中就会对短期功利的、浮躁的甚至虚假的行业和社会现象进行一种正面冲击。我没有能力让整个行业发生质变,但如果有许多企业都去努力,量变也会质变。学者、艺术家,越老越值钱,因为这是一生的积累和沉淀。但我们看看现实中的从业者,有多少人认定这份工作是他的终生职业?”这种社会心态是不正常的,但又不是短时间可以改变的,除了价值观的扭曲,还有历史的因素。未来的社会是一个专业细分的社会,要把专业做到极致才行。但现实却是忽悠炒作盛行,违法违纪、失去诚信的成本极低,这就导致一种价值观的误导。
Good and Evil: My almost hypocritical insist on profession would often potentially expose a positive impact on short-term utilitarian, impetuous and even false trades and social phenomena. I simply do not have the power to make a qualitative change in the instry, but if many companies join to work hard, I believe that someday quantitative change would develop into qualitative change. The older scholars and artists became the more valuable they are, because they have a lifetime of accumulation and precipitation. But look at the reality, how many people regard the job as their lifelong career?” It is an abnormal social mentality, which can not be changed in a short-term since it stems from both distortion of values and historical factors. The society in the future will be a professional and fine sorted one, so we should make everything in our professional career perfect. However, in reality, speculation and cheat prevail and the cost of law-breaking being low, all of this leads to a misguided value。
--- “表与本”。邓博弘表示,文化创意产业具备三种属性,第一属性是商品,无论电影还是广告,都要卖钱;第二属性是工具,广告和短片都要给客户使用,从而创造更大的经济效益;第三点很关键,是通过艺术性来达到商品的最大价值和体现工具的功能,比如最明显的是建筑设计、室内设计等商业美术。从业者就要想办法把工业产品艺术化,艺术需要灵感,具有随机性,怎么办?这就需要把艺术产品工业化。典型的案例是美国的好莱坞,采用工业化手段生产了大量具有刺激性的风靡全球的影片,这就诞生了一个名词“创意机制”,机制也可以理解为土壤。
Superficial and Essential: Deng Bohong said that the cultural and creative instry have three attributes , at first it is a commodity , whether movies or advertising films should make money ; secondly it is a tool, both advertising films and movies are made to serve customers and bring greater economic benefits to them ; the third point is critical, when it aims to achieve the maximum value of commodity and tool functions by way of art , such as architectural design, interior design, commercial art field and so on. Practitioners in the instry should find ways to make instrial procts an art, but art is random and needs inspiration, how to do? The answer lies in the instrialization of artistic procts. A typical case is the Hollywood inAmerica, which proced a large number of irritating films that swept the world through instrialized ways, thus a new noun “creative mechanisms” emerges, and the mechanism here can also be understood as the soil.
继而,邓博弘进一步指出,中国有个哲学概念“舍得”,有舍才有得。你要实现一个产品的商业价值和工具功能,首先要抛弃这两点,把它艺术化,艺术化以后再寻求前两者。所以文化创意产业不像其他产业靠投钱就能解决问题,它真正需要的是土壤。这种土壤让很多艺术家可以吃饱肚子,很多商业领域的人才愿意从事这样的工作,很多生产领域的人才愿意把诞生的艺术性东西转化为工业化生产,这是一个分工有序的产业链条。
Then, Deng Bohong further pointed out thatChinahas a philosophical concept of “She De”, which means you should give at first and then you gain. In order to realize the commercial value and tool function of a proct, you should set them aside at first, and process it in artistic ways, finally seek to reach the first goal. Therefore, unlike other instries, solving problems in cultural and creative instries can not rely on investment money, what it truly needs is Soil. Only the Soil can guarantee a decent and rather rich life for artists, business talents would like to take such jobs, and talents in proction area would willing to turn artistic items into instrialized procts, and this is a part of the orderly instrial chain.
邓博弘强调,文化创意产业针对的是人们的感性心态——美感和快感。战乱贫穷时代,大米和白面值钱;和平年代,经济发展以后,奢侈品、文化艺术品、收藏品开始变得值钱。当社会再进步时,娱乐最值钱,娱乐是人的本性。
Deng Bohong stressed that cultural creative instry aims at the emotional state of mind——sense of beauty and pleasure. At the time of war and poverty, rice and flour worth a lot; at peace time, when the economy develop, luxury and collection became valuable. When the society progresses further, the most valuable thing would be entertainment, since it is part of human nature.
“这并不是主张社会娱乐化,也不是所谓的‘三俗’和八卦,而是人们解决了基本的生存需求和具有了安全感以后,人们会为自己所获得的愉悦和美感付重金买单。娱乐是一种泛指的文化创意服务,譬如旅游、收藏、玩极限运动、唱京剧、看歌剧等。只要人们的兴趣得到最大的抒发,满足了个性和爱好的取向,这就是最大的娱乐。‘黄金周’到哪里都爆满,这反映了人们的一种娱乐取向。”邓博弘解释道。
“This is not an advocate of social entertainment , nor is the so-called ‘three vulgar thing’, what I am saying is that people would like to pay a lot for their gained pleasure and enjoyment when satisfying the basic survival needs and have a sense of security. Entertainment generally refers to a kind of cultural creative service, such as travelling, collecting art items, playing extreme sports, singing Peking Opera, watching opera and so on. As long as people enjoy their interests to the fullest, and satisfy their needs of personality and hobbies, that can be described as the best entertainment. Every place crows people in Golden Week, and this also reflects a kind of entertainment orientation.” Deng Bohong explained.
《中国文化报》/ 20100714,邓博弘针对国内行业的低端化发展提出了类终身职业的感言。
如果一个行业只能让从业人员在浅显、粗糙的体力劳动中日复一日地消耗职业寿命,而找不到向上的动力,那么,这个行业也无法发展壮大。“没有一颗颗大树,也就没有一片森林。”
Chinese culture reported July 14, 2010
Deng Bohong put forward lifelong-career-like views about the low-end development of the domestic instries.
If people in an instry can only consume career life in simple and rough labor work day after day without any motivation to go up, then the instry can never develop. As the saying goes, “without trees, without forest”.
《南方人物周刊》/ 201302
传奇往往只是传播效应的结果,传奇的创造者都明白一个简单明晰的道理:“我的生产能力和精力是有限的,中国人不缺乏创意能力,但是中国的执行太烂了,因为执行是需要付出巨大的精力、时间和代价的,市场给予你的需求,绝对不是你成功的信号!”
“乌龟和兔子赛跑,再跑100次,还是乌龟赢。夸夸其谈谁都会,但真的沉下心来顶住很多压力、放弃很多诱惑,不容易。今天我一点头,可能就是一辆奔驰,再一点头,就是一栋豪宅。我可以点头,我可以给自己100个理由:没事,咱们最近加加班,把这活儿接了。但你只要点了这个头,你就不再是享受工作,而是工作的奴隶。什么戛纳、奥斯卡,统统扯淡了。乌龟虽然慢,但很踏实,而且走的是直线,不为外物所动,一个一个去实现自己的目标。目标不单指金钱和企业的规模,完成人生的蜕变也是目标。要淡定、坦然和充实。”
Southern People Weekly February, 2012
More often than not, legends are just the result of propagation, and all the creators of legend understand a simple and clear truth: My proction capacity and energy is limited, and we Chinese people do not lack of creativity, but we are short of executive ability, since execution demands huge effort, time and cost. The demand that market grants you is definitely a sign of your success!”
《环球财经》/ 201205,封面文章“文化振兴中国梦”,邓博弘以创意产业民营公司价值DNA为题,通过对“创意的认识”、“产业审视”以及“氛围判断”参与研讨。
Global Business & Finance May, 2012
In the cover story of Culture Activate The Dream of China, Deng Bohong talked about the value of private companies in creativity instry, and discussed from three aspects of “knowledge about the creativity”, ”instrial overview”, and “environment judge”.
--- 创意的认识。
《环球财经》:对于文化创意产业,从产业的角度来讲您是怎么认识的?
邓博弘:他肯定是一个产业,而且可能是一个终极产业。当社会变得稳定变得富足之后,人们才会真正寻找自己内心的需求,文化、艺术相应的东西开始之前。从中国的历史和现代世界的普遍规律看,强大的物质文明崛起之后,一定伴随的是强大的精神文明崛起。文化产品需要具有设计感具有艺术价值,在这之后其实就会踏入一个全民娱乐时代。
The Cultural Creative Instry
Global Business & Finance: Talking about the cultural creative instry, what’s your view from the instrial aspect?
Deng Bohong: First, it is an instry, and may be an ultimate instry. When the society becomes stable and rich, people will truly seeking for their inner needs, and then things related to culture and art would boom. From the history ofChinaand the universal law of the modern world, powerful material civilization would always accompany with powerful spiritual civilization. Cultural procts need to have sense of design and artistic values, and the society will actually step into a national entertainment era afterwards.
--- 产业审视。
《环球财经》:当创意遇到产业,所有的想法必须落地,必须把产品做出来才能挣到钱,您觉得中国现在的土壤和机制怎样?
邓博弘:中国人并不缺创意,我们灵魂里并不缺乏创意与文化的优良的种子,但是现在显得比较贫瘠是因为我们的土壤仍需继续改良,真正好的土壤需要用比较长的时间去培育。现在中国跟国外的区别绝对不是文化底蕴不同,而是因为经济发展的成熟度不同,因为文化创意产业和发展的节奏是非常有关系的。需求决定市场,需求是在不断的进化和演变的,而这种需求和演变又和经济发展有着很大的关系。再次,从技巧上,也是一个发展的必然规律。今天的文化创意产业,不再是我们传承的文化,他是有一些新的概念。市场化是以前没有体现,同时没有工业化就没有产业。这些元素都和我们以前对文化的理解不同,所以产品和结果也会有区别。
Instry Overview
Global Business & Finance: When the creativity encounter instry, all ideas must act in practice, and you can only make money by procing actual procts, so what do you think about the current mechanism and surrounding inChina?
Deng Bohong : Chinese people never lack of creative ideas, and we never short of the good seed of cultural creativity, the problem actually lies in the poor soil . We need to keep improving the soil condition, and fertile soil demands long-term nurturing. Currently, the difference betweenChinaand western countries lies absolutely not only in culture, but also in level of economic development, because the development of cultural creative instry relates closely to the rhythm of market.
Demands determine market, while the demand is in constant change and evolution, and the changing demands strongly link to economic development. In addition, technically it is also an inexorable law of development. Today’s cultural and creative instry is more than cultural heritage, it has some new concepts. In a word, there is no instry without instrialization. And all of these elements are different from our previous understanding about culture, so the procts and result would be different.
--- 氛围判断。
《环球财经》:目前中国已成为全球第二经济大国,这是否意味着中国的文化创意产业将获得崛起的环境呢?
邓博弘:我们在经济上用了30年完成了欧洲大概400年历程,但文化的进步速度肯定不会像经济那样快。因此中国富裕群体的文化消费能力已经达到发达国家的水平,但更多地是在消费LOGO,属于一种面子消费。全民的价值观的问题需要几代人来完成,尤其是文化意识的培养和延伸是需要一代一代传承并发扬光大。
Progress
Global Business & Finance: At present,Chinahas become the world’s second largest economy entity, so does this mean that cultural creative instry inChinawill have an environment for rising?
Deng Bohong: We spent 30 years to complete an economic task that achieved by European countries for about 400 years, but the progress rate of culture certainly can not as fast as the economy . Now, the cultural consumption capacity of rich people inChinahas reached the level of developed countries, but they still prefer to consume LOGO. The problem of universal values demands efforts of different generations, especially the cultivation and extension of cultural awareness need to pass from generation to generation and then flourish.
《财富堂》/ 201007
人们会从关心碗里有没有肉,变成去欣赏端在手里的碗是不是青花瓷、到底是哪个窑烧出来的,这个进度是需要一个过程。保持淡定、耐心等待,这是一个铁定的规律。
FortuneTown July, 2010
People would someday change from a state in which only caring about the meat in the bowl to a situation in which appreciating the bowl itself, but this demands a long process. Keep calm and be patient, it is always a golden rule.
C. 如何看待过去十年阿森纳的股东克伦克对球队投入为0
开头语:斯坦•克伦克的商业帝国克伦克体育娱乐公司总价值84亿美元,是世界上目前市值最高的体育娱乐产业公司,而克伦克本人的资产早已经超过百亿美元,位列世界福布斯排行榜的第135位,知名足球经济博主Swiss Ramble在社交网站上发布了他们对英格兰俱乐部的拥有者在某个十年阶段(2008-2017)年的投资统计,其中曼城的拥有者投入约13亿英镑排名第一,而阿森纳的老板克伦克这些年对于俱乐部的实际投资则是零,相信这样的数据无疑会让阿森纳球迷心态更加“爆炸”,很多球迷在这条新闻底下留言,纷纷表示了对于温格的心痛与道歉,同时更加加剧了对于克伦克的不满。
写在最后的话:克伦克不是酋长跟寡头
在当今的足球世界中,金钱的作用正在变得越来越大,阿森纳的球迷想必会很羡慕切尔西与曼城队,因为他们借助于金钱的力量,仅仅用两三年的时间就超越自己,成为英超的霸主。在金钱面前,阿森纳的百年历史根本不值得一提。但是很显然,克拉克不是俄罗斯的“政治寡头”更不是“视金钱如粪土”的西亚酋长。他来英超是为了赚钱的,他既不寻求政治庇护。也不希望借着足球扩大自己的影响力。对于美国老板来说,钱才是最实际的。所以从这个角度来看,想必未来阿森纳依然要过着现在这种“自给自足”的日子了。不过凡事都分两面性,正是在美国人的运营之下,阿森纳有了充分的自给自足的能力,这使得即便是有一天克伦克把阿森纳卖掉,球队的也不会受到太大的影响。因为阿森纳本身也没怎么依靠过这个老板,可是假如你把阿布跟曼苏尔酋长的钱抽掉,切尔西与曼城会变成什么样子呢?或许如今的朴茨茅斯就是一个最好的例子吧!
D. 特斯拉半年内平均市值达到1000亿美元 马斯克将获7亿美元期权奖励
特斯拉首席执行官埃隆-马斯克有资格获得价值近7亿美元的期权奖励了。
就在他表示特斯拉股价过高之后的三天,特斯拉的股价下跌后又反弹至高点。
特斯拉的股价周一跳涨超过8%,使特斯拉的市值在收盘时达到1411亿美元。 对马斯克来说,更重要的是,根据Refinitiv的数据分析,特斯拉的最近6个月平均市值达到了1002亿美元。
“6个月平均市值达到1000亿美元”会使得马斯克被授予12批期权中的第一批期权,这是2018年商定的薪酬方案的一部分。
马斯克可以以每股350.02美元的价格购买169万股特斯拉股票。 按照特斯拉的收盘价761.19美元计算,理论上来说,马斯克出售这些股票可以获得6.94亿美元的利润。
马斯克周五在推特上表示,"特斯拉的股价太高了,IMO",IMO为"in my opinion" 的缩写,意为"在我看来 "。
这条推文让特斯拉第二天股价暴跌10%,令股东们震惊。
特斯拉因相关州冠状病毒封锁而关闭了加州弗里蒙特工厂,而该公司上周公布了2020第一季度财报,实现连续第三个季度盈利。
马斯克也是SpaceX火箭制造商SpaceX的大股东和首席执行官,但他没有领取任何工资或现金奖励,他唯一的奖励就是根据特斯拉的市值、营收、利润的不断增长而获得更多的期权。
分析机构预测,如果马斯克能获得全部分红,那么这笔奖励将成为美国历史上获得期权奖励最高的美国企业高管。
特斯拉在2018年公布马斯克的方案时,曾表示如果不发行新股,理论上他可以获得高达558亿美元的回报。 不过,此后特斯拉一直在发行股票来补偿员工,去年特斯拉出售了27亿美元的股票和可转换债券。
马斯克随后的期权转股将在协议的10年内以特斯拉市值500亿美元的增量逐级获。,如果特斯拉的市值达到6500亿美元,并且这家高科技汽车制造商实现了多项营收和利润目标,马斯克可以获得全部500多亿美元的收益。
本文来源于汽车之家车家号作者,不代表汽车之家的观点立场。
E. 中国持有美国国债的历年数据(最近的,最好来自美国的财政部)
在流量方面,2010年我国对境外证券投资345亿美元(其中债券199亿美元),净流出76亿美元(其中债券净流入8亿美元);今年一季度,我国对境外证券投资68亿美元(其中债券36亿美元),净流出28亿美元(其中债券净流出27亿美元)。在存量方面,自从2004年最初开始编制中国国际投资头寸表以来,中国民间投资者的境外证券投资资产总体上处于增长态势,尽管2008、2009年因金融危机陡然升级而有所减少,2010年便重拾升势:2004—2010年间每年年末分别为920亿美元、1167亿美元、2652亿美元、2846亿美元、2525亿美元、2428亿美元、2571亿美元,今年一季度末为2635亿美元,比上年末增加了64亿美元。其中,债务证券历年末分别为920亿美元、1167亿美元、2637亿美元、2650亿美元、2311亿美元、1882亿美元、1941亿美元,今年一季度末上升到2003亿美元,增长62亿美元,占了今年一季度中国民间境外证券资产增量的绝大部分。由于欧元区各国无法形成统一意志,更缺乏强大的共同财政,欧洲主权债务危机比美债危机更为深重,日本又遭受地震和核危机重创,一部分民间投资者很可能减持了日欧资产,而增持相对不那么烂的美元资产。